Azra_Files : Your Thursday Briefing

« Liberalism defines government as tyrant father but demands it behave as nurturant mother. » Camille Paglia


Azra Isakovic


Good Morning

Here’s what you need to know:

China/Hong Kong/ Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow Are Sentenced to Prison Over Hong Kong Protest, by Austin Ramzy and Tiffany May | The New York Times

Coronavirus/ Why the U.K. Approved a Coronavirus Vaccine First, by Benjamin Mueller | The New York Times

Futurethink/ The Perils of Predicting With Futurethink  Brookings Institution

Class/Inequality/ The Gadfly of American Plutocracy | Boston Review

The Biden Transition/ Biden Wants America to Lead the World. It Shouldn’t By Peter Beinart | The New York Times

China/ How is China Managing its Greenhouse Gas Emissions? | CSIS

US/ American ‘Leadership’ Is an Outdated Concept  Peter Beinart, New York Times

US/Russia/ Russians Expect U.S. Relations to Worsen Under Biden  Russia Matters

Europe/ Reforming Dayton  Daniel Serwer, Foreign Service Journal

Russia/China/ Is Putin Really Considering a Military Alliance With China?  A. Gabuev, MT

EconomyTurning Hope Into Reality: OECD Economic Outlook, December 2020  

China/Digital / How should democracies confront China’s digital rise? Weighing the merits of a T-10 alliance, Steven Feldstein   Statecraft 

Russia/ Russia’s Lost War  Izabella Tavarovsky, Wilson Quarterly

China/Australia/ China Humiliating Australia as an Example to Others  Anne-Marie Brady, SMH

Defense/ The Next National Defense Strategy  Benjamin Jensen & Nathan Packard, War on the Rocks

US/ America First, Second, or What?  Victor Davis Hanson, National Review

The Biden Transition/ 4 Foreign Policy CrisesThat Will Hit Biden Early  Alex Ward, Vox

Australia/China/ No Winners in Australia-China Trade War  Shiro Armstrong, East Asia Forum

Asia/ What RCEP Says About Geopolitics in Asia  Rocky Intan, The Interpreter

Brexit/ Why This Is Real Brexit Crunch, Why It Isn’t  E. Casalicchio & B. Moens, Politico EU

EU/Asia/US/ EU must look to Asia, as well as rebuilding trust with US | Financial Times

China/Technology/ Chinese state-backed funds invest in US tech despite Washington | Financial Times

Azra_Files : Your Wednesday Briefing

À force de ne jamais réfléchir, on a un bonheur stupide.

Jean Cocteau

Good morning

Here’s what you need to know today

Russia/Japan/ Russia deploys advanced S-300 missiles to disputed islands near Japan | Reuters

Russia/ Moldova/  Moscow Says Call To Leave Moldovan Breakaway Region ‘Irresponsible’ | Barron’s

EU/US – A new transatlantic bargain: An action plan for transformation, not restoration, Julien Barnes-Dacey, et al., European Council on Foreign Relations

China / Australia/ The World in a Vise: Sounding the Alarm on China, Then Running for Shelter By Damien Cave | The New York Times

NATO/China/ NATO should expand its focus to include China, a high-level assessment of the alliance’s future says | The Wall Street Journal

NATO – NATO 2030: United for a New Era. Analysis and recommendations of the Reflection Group appointed by the NATO Secretary General | NATO 

Technology/China/US – The Great 5G Race: Is China Really Beating the United States? Doug Brake and Alexandra Bruer, ITIF 

US/Asia-Pacific/Trade – Rebuild the Trans-Pacific partnership back better, Jeffrey J. Schott, PIIE   

EU/Security – CFSP: The capability-expectation gap revisited, Annegret Bendiek, Minna Ålander, and Paul Bochtler, SWP 

NATO/Europe/ The role of NATO for Europe’s defense Status and options for further development from a German perspective, by Claudia Major | SWP  https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/die-rolle-der-nato-fuer-europas-verteidigung PDF 📥 : https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/studien/2019S25_mjr_Web.pdf

EU – Still governing in the shadows? Member states and the Political & Security Committee in the post‐Lisbon EU foreign policy architecture Journal of Common Market Studies 

Europe/China – Europe wakes up to the China challenge, Lionel Barber, Nikkei Asia  

Digital/Europe – How nine digital frontrunners can lead on AI in Europe, McKinsey 

Digital/US/EU – EU-US Cybersecurity Policy Coming Together: Recommendations for instruments to accomplish joint strategic goals, Julia Schuetze, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung 

Disinformation – Tackling online abuse and disinformation targeting women in politics, Lucina Di Meco and Saskia Brechenmacher, Carnegie Endowment   

The Next Liberal Order The Age of Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less By G. John Ikenberry | Foreign Affairs

Syria/ Air strike kills IRGC commander at Iraq-Syria border – Iraqi officials By Reuters Staff

Middle East/Yemen/ The Houthis and misuse of the terrorist organization list | Responsible Statecraft

Middle East/ Yemen/ UN: 11 children killed in 2 attacks in Yemen By AHMED AL-HAJ The Associated Press @AP

Azra_Files : Your Tuesday Briefing Dec. 01, 2020

Il faut organiser le pessimisme.

Pierre Naville

Good morning

Here’s what you need to know today

Brexit/ Some EU members are growing impatient on Brexit – Merkel By Reuters Staff

EU – Pandemic borrowing, Helen Thompson, Internationale Politik Quarterly  

US/France/Europe – Europe may cheer Biden’s win – But it threatens Macron’s grand project, Michele Barbero, Foreign Policy 

US/Economy – The crisis opportunity, Jason Furman, Foreign Affairs    

Russia/Arctic – Russia’s Arctic strategy through 2035, Janis Kluge and Michael Paul, SWP  

UK/Indo-Pacific – China and Brexit drive the UK’s ‘tilt’ to Indo-Pacific, Bill Hayton, Chatham House  

Bulgaria – Bulgaria joins Europe’s awkward squad, Valerie Hopkins and Michael Peel, Financial Times

Social democracy The culture war over the Istanbul Convention in East Central Europe  By Eszter Kováts | International Politics & Society

US/Economy – The crisis opportunity, Jason Furman, Foreign Affairs  

EU – The rule of law in the EU budget, Milan Nič, Roderick Parkes, Slawomir Sierakowski, and Shahin Vallée, DGAP

EU/Russia/Belarus – Belarus protests have explosive potential for EU-Russia relations, Arkady Moshes, Carnegie Moscow

China / Hong Kong Hong Kong’s Courts Are Still Independent. Some Want to Rein Them In. By Austin Ramzy | The New York Times

Syria/ Taking Stock: Five Years of Russia’s Intervention in Syria | Carnegie Europe

Azra_Files : Your Monday Briefing Nov. 30, 2020

« The job of a citizen is to keep his mouth open »

Gunter Grass

Here’s what you need to know today

#BidenTransition/ Biden hires all-female senior communications team, names Neera Tanden director of OMB ( Office of Management and Budget) | The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-hires-all-female-senior-communications-team/2020/11/29/5b60b58e-3277-11eb-a997-1f4c53d2a747_story.html

#BidenTransition/ Biden Appointee Neera Tanden Spread the Conspiracy That Russian Hackers Changed Hillary’s 2016 Votes to Trump – How can Democrats and allied media outlets credibly oppose unhinged conspiracy theories and attacks on U.S. election legitimacy while empowering its worst purveyors? | Glenn Greenwald https://greenwald.substack.com/p/biden-appointee-neera-tanden-spread

#MohsenFakhrizadeh/ Overview: nuclear scientists as assassination targets, By William Tobey – Bulletin Atomic https://thebulletin.org/premium/2020-11/overview-nuclear-scientists-as-assassination-targets/

#EU🇪🇺/#China🇨🇳/ EU proposes fresh alliance with #UnitedStates🇺🇸 in face of China challenge | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/e8e5cf90-7448-459e-8b9f-6f34f03ab77a

#China🇨🇳/#BRI/#Laos🇱🇦/ A Border Town’s Second Gamble – The First Stop in Laos on the New Railway from China, Boten Prepares for New Connections, by Ore Huiying & Wan Man, ChinaFile https://shar.es/aoWy3r

#China🇨🇳/#Europe🇪🇺/ #17plus1/#5G/ China in Europe and Transatlantic Security, by Andrew Michta, ICDS https://bit.ly/36hJDrX
PDF 📥 https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ICDS-EFPI-Brief_China-in-Europe-and-Transatlantic-Security_Andrew-A-Michta_November-2020.pdf

#UnitedStates🇺🇸/#Iran🇮🇷/#irannucleardeal/#JCPoA/ Brazen Killings Expose Iran’s Vulnerabilities as It Struggles to Respond, By David D. Kirkpatrick, Ronen Bergman and Farnaz Fassihi | The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/28/world/middleeast/iran-assassinations-nuclear-israel.html

#UnitedStates🇺🇸/#Iran🇮🇷/#irannucleardeal/#JCPoA/ Machine guns and a hit squad: the killing of Iran’s nuclear mastermind | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/a2fade69-3b03-4d0f-9fd3-1641ae1fddb1

#UnitedStates🇺🇸/#Iran🇮🇷/#irannucleardeal/#JCPoA/ Assassination in Iran Could Limit Biden’s Options. Was That the Goal? By David E. Sanger | The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/28/world/middleeast/israel-iran-nuclear-deal.html

Kushner heading to Saudi Arabia and Qatar amid tensions over Iranian scientist killing  | The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/29/jared-kushner-saudi-arabia-qatar-tensions-iranian-scientist-killing

#Libya🇱🇾/ Exploring Armed Groups in Libya: Perspectives on SSR in a Hybrid Environment | DCAF – Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance https://www.dcaf.ch/exploring-armed-groups-libya-perspectives-ssr-hybrid-environment PDF 📥 https://www.dcaf.ch/sites/default/files/publications/documents/ExploringArmedGroupsinLibya.pdf

#EU🇪🇺/#defense/#socialmedia/ Social media disinformation disrupts EU missions worldwide, by Brooks Tigner | Janes https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/social-media-disinformation-disrupts-eu-missions-worldwide

The Macron Doctrine, Barack Obama, Capitalisme, Left Wing Populism, The Biden Transition: Your Saturday Briefing

Azra_Files : Nov. 28, 2020

Here’s what you need to know, by Azra Isakovic

#EU🇪🇺/ The #MacronDoctrine and the Geopolitical Future of the EU | @dgapev https://dgap.org/en/events/macron-doctrine-and-geopolitical-future-eu

#Russia🇷🇺/#UnitedStates🇺🇸/ Biden’s Approach to U.S. Allies and Adversaries Will Challenge Russia, by Dmitri Trenin | Carnegie Moscow Center https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83336

#Capitalism/ The Rich Kids Who Want to Tear Down Capitalism – Socialist-minded millennial heirs are trying to live their values by getting rid of their money. By Zoë Beery | The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/27/style/trust-fund-activism-resouce-generation.html

#LeftWingPopulism/ Diego Maradona, Argentine football great, 1960-2020 | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/45d05dc6-243d-487f-a7f3-09367ed503b8

#NYT/ How Does Ben Smith Sleep at Night?  | The New Republic https://newrepublic.com/article/160396/ben-smith-new-york-times-media-column-janet-malcolm

Books📚/ “A Promised Land” by Barack Obama review – an impressive but incomplete memoir Gary Younge | The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/nov/26/a-promised-land-by-barack-obama-review-an-impressive-but-incomplete-memoir

Books📚/ 10 books to read in December | Le Grand Continent https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2020/11/27/10-livres-decembre/

Azra_Files : Nov. 27, 2020 – Here’s what you need to know

Edward Snowden, Glenn Greenwald, The Biden Transition, Technology, Democracy, Press Freedom, Books📚 : Your Friday Briefing, By Azra Isakovic

#Books📚/ “Living in Troubled Times” by Thierry de Montbrial , Executive chairman and founder of IFRI_ | World Scientific https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/11147

#Books📚/ Education & Development in Colonial & Postcolonial Africa. Policies, Paradigms, & Entanglements, 1890s–1980s by Damiano Matasci, Miguel Bandeira Jerónimo, Hugo Gonçalves Dores eds Palgrave Macmillan coll. « Global Histories of Education » #openaccess  http://sfhom.com/spip.php?article3673

#Books📚/ Repenser la « mission civilisatrice ». L’éducation dans le monde colonial et postcolonial au XXe siècle, par Damiano Matasci, Miguel Bandeira Jerónimo, Hugo Gonçalves Dores eds aux Presses Universitaires de Rennes @pureditions coll. « Histoire » #Livres 📚 http://sfhom.com/spip.php?article3672

#Technology/#Democracy/ Demanding Silicon Valley Suppress “Hyper-Partisan Sites” in Favor of “Mainstream News” (The NYT) is a Fraud, by Glenn Greenwald https://greenwald.substack.com/p/demanding-silicon-valley-suppress

#VIDÉO 🎥/ #Technology/#Democracy/ Interview with Edward Snowden (@Snowden) on Silicon Valley Censorship, Biden, and Lurking Press Freedom Dangers, by Glenn Greenwald https://greenwald.substack.com/p/video-interview-with-edward-snowden

#Europe🇪🇺/#France🇫🇷/#PressFreedom/ Video of Police Beating Black Man in Paris Fuels Debate on Filming Officers https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/world/europe/Paris-police-beating-video.html

#Europe🇪🇺/#France🇫🇷/#PressFreedom/ Emmanuel Macron’s illiberal plan to protect the French police | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/17e7122b-c127-4996-a4ab-c399d05f242a?list=intlhomepage

#Nexit/ New Dutch ‘Nexit’ party threatens Rutte – Forum for Democracy is among the groups hoping to make a splash in regional vote, by Mehreen Khan | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/98f94164-2cca-11e8-a34a-7e7563b0b0f4

#Europe🇪🇺/#Bosnia&Herzegovina🇧🇦/#Dayton How to Free Bosnia From Dayton’s Paralyzing Grip  Majda Ruge, ECFR https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-europe-and-the-us-can-take-bosnia-beyond-dayton-25-years-later/

#VIDÉO 🎥/#Libya🇱🇾/ Moment German Commandos Intercept & Raid Turkish Ship Bound For Libya | @zerohedge https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-moment-german-commandos-intercept-raid-turkish-ship-bound-libya

#Chine🇨🇳/ Why the Quad Should Focus on a Strategy to Contain China  James Holmes, TNI

Azra_Files : Jeudi 26 novembre 2020

Voici ce que vous devez savoir aujourd’hui

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#TheBidenTransition/#TransitionBiden/ Dis non, Joe – En ce qui concerne la #politique_étrangère, il est impossible de revenir au statu quo – Joe Biden devrait s’appuyer sur les meilleures idées de Barack Obama et dire non aux guerres inutiles et aux dépassements militaires, par Benjamin H. Friedman, Stephen Wertheim | Foreign Policy https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/25/say-no-joe/

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#TheBidenTransition/#TransitionBiden/ #ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#TheBidenTransition/#TransitionBiden/ L’équipe de sécurité nationale de Biden offre un virage serré – Approche prudente d’Obama à l’égard des opérations étrangères pourrait être révisée, Par Annie Karni et David E. Sanger pour le New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/us/politics/biden-nominees-national-security.html

#Numérique/#UE🇪🇺/ L’Europe n’a pas de stratégie en matière de cyber-sanctions, Stefan Soesanto, Lawfare
http://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-has-no-strategy-cyber-sanctions

#Numérique/#France🇫🇷 /#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/  La France exige des paiements d’impôts numériques de la part des groupes technologiques américains, Aime Williams, Hannah Murphy et Victor Mallet, Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/2cfe3d07-7e69-4f57-b634-8b6002f967cb

#Chine🇨🇳/#Numérique – La route numérique de la soie en Chine: importance économique et politique, Damian Wnukowski, PISM https://pism.pl/publications/Chinas_Digital_Silk_Road_Economic_and_Political_Significance

#Technologie/#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/  Les conservateurs qui se plaignent de la censure –  Les Pro-Trump sur Internet n’arrêtent pas de parler de son exode des #BigTech. Mais très peu d’entre eux ont en fait abandonné leurs foyers de longue date sur les réseaux sociaux | The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/11/23/parler-conservatives-still-on-twitter/

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/  9 choses à savoir sur Anthony Blinken D. Herszenhorn et R. Momtaz, Politico EU
https://www.politico.eu/article/nine-things-to-think-about-antony-blinken/

#Russie🇷🇺/ Le pivot asiatique de la Russie se heurte à de nouveaux problèmes, Sergey Sukhankin, Jamestown
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-pivot-to-asia-encounters-new-difficulties/

#Chine🇨🇳/ La Chine fixe un bilan financier, Phillip Orchard, Geopolitical Futures
https://bit.ly/3nXi9hh

Azra_Files 25/11/2020

Voici ce que vous devez savoir aujourd’hui

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#Europe🇪🇺/ Alors que Trump sort, les fractures en Europe s’élargissent à nouveau – Les responsables en France et en Allemagne se disputent déjà la vie après son départ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/world/europe/trump-macron-merkel-france-germany.html

#Europe🇪🇺/#Corruption/ La corruption pourrit la périphérie de l’Europe – Les problèmes du continent s’étendent aux démocraties en difficulté au-delà de la Hongrie et de la Pologne https://www.ft.com/content/78ba92ed-94ef-47ce-9157-658e068cd814

#France🇫🇷/ Sur le point de devenir moins libre – Au lendemain des récents attentats terroristes, le gouvernement français a introduit une nouvelle législation qui menace les libertés mêmes qu’il s’engage à défendre, par Mira Kamdar
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/france-about-become-less-free/617195/

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#Europe🇪🇺/ Pourquoi l’Europe centrale et orientale sera importante pour l’administration Biden, Daniel Hegedüs, GMF https://shar.es/aoblKd

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#Europe🇪🇺/#Bosnie🇧🇦/#Dayton/ Un nouvel accord pour la #BosnieHerzégovine🇧🇦, rapport et recommandations, groupe de travail sur les Balkans occidentaux Woodrow Wilson Center
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/fixing-dayton-new-deal-bosnia-and-herzegovina

#Technologie/#Numérique/#UnionEuropéenne🇪🇺 – L’empreinte numérique de l’#UE🇪🇺 tourne en rond, par @alanbeattie via @financialtimes https://www.ft.com/content/8e8ce49b-0ca2-4d6d-86e4-3c3a0c4a4397?shareType=nongift

#Technologie/#Numérique/#Chine🇨🇳 – Compétitivité chinoise dans l’économie numérique internationale, Caleb Foote et Robert D.Atkinson, | @ITIFdc http://itif.org/publications/2020/11/23/chinese-competitiveness-international-digital-economy
PDF 📥

#Technologie/#Démocratie/ Le pouvoir exercé par #BigTech est une menace pour la démocratie – Pour y faire face, il faudra briser le contrôle monopolistique des entreprises sur l’information politique, par @FukuyamaFrancis, @BarakRichman, et @ashishgoel
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-11-24/fukuyama-how-save-democracy-technology

#ÉtatsUnis🇺🇸/#Chine🇨🇳/ Entreprises multinationales, compte courant et découplage États-Unis-Chine, par Stewart Paterson | Hinrich Foundation https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/wp/us-china/mnes-decoupling-from-china/

#Chine🇨🇳/#MerNoire – Un changement de mer?: Le rôle de la Chine dans la mer Noire, par Michael O’Hanlon, Ivan Safranchuk, Igor Denisov, Vakhtang Charaia, Mariam Lashkhi , Jean-Marc Blanchard, Michal Meidan, Altay Atlı via Middle East Institute https://www.mei.edu/publications/sea-change-chinas-role-black-sea
PDF 📥

Les think tanks et la paix, par Sabine Jansen

Ni lobby, ni parti, ni centre universitaire, le think tank, au statut juridique variable, est un lieu de débat, d’information ainsi que de production de concepts et d’analyses. Il participe à cette diplomatie non gouvernementale, ou para-diplomatie, qui repose sur la fonction d’expertise et sur des capacités d’action transnationales. C’est un instrument d’influence, un des éléments du soft power théorisé par Joseph Nye1, qui agit à l’extérieur, par le biais d’échanges internationaux mais aussi, à l’intérieur, dans le cadre de l’aide à la décision. La justification même des think tanks repose sur leur capacité à produire de l’expertise, c’est-à-dire à rendre un avis appuyé sur des compétences et « sur une analyse rationnelle, l’ensemble ayant pour objectif de servir de guide à la décision ».QI-100_002

Littéralement « boîtes à penser » ou « boîtes à idées », les think tanks ont connu, au début des années 2000, une publicité tardive. L’un d’eux, le Project for the New American Century (PNAC) fondé en 1997 par William Kristol et Robert Kagan, a activement soutenu le projet d’invasion de l’Irak en 2003. D’obédience néoconservatrice, il a été, dès 1998, avec certains de ses membres comme Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld ou John Bolton, l’actuel conseiller à la sécurité de Donald Trump, à l’initiative d’une lettre ouverte appelant au remplacement de Saddam Hussein, considéré comme une menace, et « à prendre les mesures nécessaires, y compris militaires pour protéger nos intérêts vitaux dans le Golfe ».

Après les attentats du 11 Septembre, la campagne fut reprise et amplifiée auprès de George W. Bush pour l’exhorter à intervenir militairement contre l’Irak. On connaît la suite. Le même président américain a aussi suivi les préconisations d’un autre think tank, la Heritage Foundation, à l’égard de la Corée du Nord en refusant systématiquement toute discussion bilatérale avec elle.

Belligènes, le PNAC et la Heritage Foundation ne sont cependant pas représentatifs des think tanks, dont l’histoire est au contraire intimement liée à la cause de la paix. Quoique le pavillon couvre des marchandises assez diverses et que sa forme ait évolué, les premiers think tank sont œuvré en faveur de l’entente entre les peuples…

Pour continuer la lecture:

Questions internationales N° 99-100, Octobre 2019, (p. 108-110)

 

Sabine Jansen : Les boîtes à idées de Marianne